Gergely Orosz: And then a lot of people just left a lot of real money on the table to join the risky thing, but this risk was not really added there. So if you ask me, just from a pure financial perspective, if you join a startup that’s early stage, you might actually just want to ask for – like, rationally, you might want to ask for a premium. You might want to ask for more base salary, because it’s a risky place, which could shut down, and this could be worth nothing… Which is obviously not what’s happening, but that would be the rational thing to do. But we forgot about this risk.
So there’s a big risk with the startups… And one story of a software engineer who just got really unlucky, because they misread the market - so this person was working… I think it was – I don’t want to say the specific name of the company, but this is a real person, and they were working at one of the… Okay, I’ll just say, like, one of these three: DoorDash, Roblox or Pinterest. I just don’t want to like narrow it down. So one of these three companies, they were working there. And they joined in the middle of 2021, where – I think it was a new grad, or maybe a software engineer, too. So someone with a pretty early in career. And they got a package where it was base salary, and then a bunch of stock; like a pretty good stock package.
And six months later, by the end of 2021, the stock has already gone down for all of these companies by about 50% from just the middle of 2021. There was like these six months where – so their stock package was worth like half. And I think it was down even like 55%. And this person was like “Oh man, I’m only six months in.” I haven’t even vested my first vest, which will be at a year… But you know what - I didn’t sign up for this. My composition went down.” And here’s this cool thing called Web 3, that is doing really well… So this person joined the Web 3 company and negotiated his original package, but in Web 3 tokens; or maybe not even tokens, but equity in that Web 3 company.
[25:57] And then this person got really unlucky - and this is the actual true story - so four months later or five months later, around April 2022, the Luna token collapsed. There was this stablecoin, which was an algorithmic stablecoin, which somehow, some bad actor exploited, and as a result, there was this Anchor protocol that yielded something like 8% or 10%, or I think 18% interest, supposedly risk-free… And the startup of this guy held all their treasury in this Anchor protocol. And so they just went bankrupt overnight.
So there was this guy who left the company that the stock was going down, and it was a rational thing to do; like, why would you stay, when you can just make more money taking a bigger risk? Took a bigger risk, which went absolutely to zero, and I don’t know what actually happened with them; if they went back, or if they went somewhere else… But it was just a chain of bad events.
And then another person – these people find me online… There’s a person who was at Fast, which went bankrupt, and then joined the competitor Bolt, which then had layoffs, and I think they managed to miss that… But it just shows that it is now hard to find the company that will definitely not be doing any layoffs. And yeah, it’s a market we’ve just not seen. I don’t think anyone has been used to – the most common question I get these days… Like, a year ago it was “Hey, which company should I join that pays the most?” Now the most common question I get is “How can I evaluate companies that don’t have [unintelligible 00:27:31.14] layoffs?” And this last question is hard to answer, because I for example really thought for a long time that Meta will not do layoffs, because I looked at their bottom line, their profits… They’re a money printing machine; they still are. And they still did layoffs, because – I mean, we can go into that… But their profit was just dropping, because their revenue was flat, and their costs were going up, and shareholders will not take any of that, and their stock price was collapsing… Which - if they would have not done layoffs, they would have seen a lot of attrition. Because a lot of people are just – people I talked with at Meta, they’re just really unhappy, they’re gonna make a lot less money in 2022 than they did in 2021 because of their outside stock packages.