Brendan Eich, founder of Brave and creator of JavaScript, joined the show to talk about the history of the web, how it has been funded, and the backstory on the early browser wars and emerging monetization models. We also talked about why big problems are hard to solve for the Internet and the tradeoffs between centralization and distribution.
Brendan Eich: The story of my life. I was a Unix kernel hacker at Silicon Graphics before I ended up at Netscape, and I always worked on platform code⦠I think you see - itās pretty explicit now - open fintech through the Symphony Foundation and other things⦠You see a lot of companies realize that open source is better for quality assurance, recruiting, lots of things that traditionally they would have to pay for themselves, so they can share the cost of platform code, or what Georgios Kontaxis calls evolutionary kernel code. This is the sort of stable code thatās conserved like the best DNA in a population. Itās like the TCP/IP or JavaScript - once you stabilize it, everybody can build huge systems above, and sometimes even below it. You can have multiple link layers and go from Ethernet being 10 Mbps on copper, all the way up to fiber (metropolitan Ethernet or whatever ATM cells) and still have this TCP/IP in the middle, and sure, IPv6, but itās not really taking over, and itās all evolutionary. JavaScript ES6, here we go again!
The platform code, the evolutionary kernel code thatās sort of āthe commonsā in the best sense of the word, is a cost center. When I was at Silicon Graphics, as I developed hot, killer graphics, workstations and then high-end multi-processors and low-end desktop graphics workstation machines, eventually to be killed by the PC and the GPU in the ā90s, the kernel group that I worked in and the network software group got kicked around. It was a cost center, it was an albatross, or else it was a source of talent for building out something important for the multiprocessor business. So they got kicked from the āhot productā group to the ānot hot productā group and back. I think it even got divisionalized a little bit, not fully forked. HP did the same thing.
I see a pattern here, where open source is serving the commons, itās not serving the differentiated, risky or for-profit innovation, that for better or worse some of that stuff stays proprietary. But anything that starts to become a platform, starts to become a cost center and needs to have its costs shared if itās of interest to many other players. And how do you fund that? I wouldnāt say itās exactly like publishers, because publishers often are for-profit. But not always - Dow Jones was a long-time family-owned and subsidized⦠In some ways we need Carlos Slim and Jeff Bezos to prop up the nationās number one and two papers of record, right?
[01:00:22.27] Newspapers have been in a decades-long decline, and they always relied on advertising and subscriptions, and subscriptions never paid for the whole thing; they were always a minority of the revenue needed to run a newspaper business, even back in the heyday, the golden age of newspapers. Because people would subscribe, and there was some revenue you made there, but advertising paid the bulk of it, and thatās still true.
The way I look at this is not to say āWe must have advertising. Advertising is always good.ā There was a TV executive I heard about in the ā50s who said, āItās inconceivable that television will ever be other than free and advertising-supportedā, and of course we have Netflix now, so never say never. Maybe the Brave donation model, in some future frictionless micro-donation, micro-payment, micro-royalty world will suffice. We still have free television with ads for sure, even with Netflix. But if you look at how costs are covered, you have to look at whatās happening today. If 70 billion is spent on ads in the U.S. (I think this year, or maybe it was last year), and Facebook and Google are taking a lot of it (theyāre taking 80%) and the increment in spending from last year - maybe it went from 60 to 70 - of that 10 billion increment theyāre 90%, thatās not leaving a lot for the publishers. And if you look at how the publishers do their ad businesses, they have to pay if they sell direct ad space. If they do indirect, theyāre at the mercy of malware, like I said, but theyāre also getting far less, because thereās so many people in the middle, cutting out from the pie; by the time the pie gets from the marketing side to the publisher, thereās very little left - 35-40% or less.
Still, thatās a lot of money. Thatās billions of dollars a year, and these companies need to get it, so how would you go about replacing that? Assume for a moment things need to be replaced as is, that we wonāt get a better model, we wonāt find fusion energy, like Sam Altman thinks would make electricity free - I kind of doubt that - but ceteris paribus (all else equal), how would you replace that 70 billion? I think about that a lot. First of all, I think a lot of it is wasted on ads that never are viewed. This is the big scandal thatās been breaking for the last year or so, thanks to my friends at White Ops Security; there was another group whose acronym Iām forgetting - ANA I think, that did a study that showed there was a lot of fraud and kickback nonsense going onā¦
[01:02:56.04] A lot of ads arenāt being viewed. Facebook recently announced that its video ad metrics were off, way high from what they actually were. And they were charging accordingly, so people are kind of mad about this. But we have computers, we have smartphones; we could theoretically do a very private platform that measures what youāre interested in without giving away your data profile or your privacy, and matches valuable opportunities to you and give you a cut. That makes me think thereās a way to fund the web even if itās not a commons. But certainly, for things like a publisher site that is more of a commons - obviously, Wikipedia is an example, but there are others - or all the open source software that everybody wants to share the cost of, because it is a cost centre, it is even an evolutionary kernel in some sense, and it has to be sustained by everybody whoās chipping in. I think there are ways to fund it, itās just we havenāt found the ways to do it. Thatās why Braveās doing Bitcoin under the hood. Itās not because we love Bitcoin; we donāt want everyone to learn about Bitcoin. We do not intend people to have to become Bitcoin gurus. We havenāt announced yet, weāre doing a deal where you can easily just trust us with your credit card to do a recurring small charge to get Bitcoins; you donāt have to think about it at all. Currently, the way you fund your Brave wallet while weāre doing this Brave payments, beta is with Coinbase (weāve partnered with Coinbase), but you still have to think a little bit about Bitcoin. And the publisher side, theyāre getting Bitcoin out; weāre gonna make that easy to get fiat [currency] out.
Weād like to use something like Bitcoin though because we think thereās a future where you have a frictionless system - no interchange charge, none of the hidden charges that are associated with the credit cards where fraud sticks the merchant with the overhead or the cost of having funds clawed back to the bank. The interchange charge is like 2,15% or something (it varies), but the hidden cost of fraud is high, and a lot of merchants have to eat it. Itās not a good deal for them, especially the small businesses.
[01:04:57.10] So I think thereās something coming to the web in terms of frictionless payments, whether itās Bitcoin, or Ethereum classic, or son of daughter of redheadās stepchild of both⦠Thereās something coming there, and the important properties are the permissionless property, no intermediary, frictionless property⦠Ideally, it would be anonymous and capable of doing micro transactions with Bitcoin as not currently. But thatās why Brave has this Brave payment solution - we solve that ahead of some next-generation solution that is coming to Bitcoin. And we want to, again, make it just work with your native fiat currency. If that happens, then I think it will be easier to micro-tip, micro-donate, have micro royalties.
Think about the Ted Nelsonās project Xanadu vision, and now think about VR if it ever takes off, or AR, because it really should be in our sunglasses. In ten years it probably will be, then all the great stuff creative people build for the augmented or virtual world - you canāt really DRM it. Itās a shared world, thereās too many eyeballs to ray trace and path trace to. You canāt say, āThese are encrypted pixels and you cannot touch them, or weāll put you in jail under the DMCA.ā
All your models and your texture art - theyāre gonna be out there, just like they were in Second Life. How do you protect that stuff? Well, you can watermark it; thatās a traditional method, it goes back to real-world paintings and documents. That is more of an identification system for prosecuting gross copyright violations after the fact. What if you could just have automatic micro royalties, like
Ted Nelson envisioned? People are looking at or using, or borrowing, or creative-commons-ing, meshing up some bit of art - thereās a micro royalty associated to the artist. That can be automated too, and thatās another thing that I think you can do with cryptocurrencies if you do them right. That should be part of the web standard, future AR web. Iāll pause there because Iāve said a lot, but you can see that thereās a big vision here, and I hope itās exciting to everybody because it goes way beyond just browsers.