Brendan Eich, founder of Brave and creator of JavaScript, joined the show to talk about the history of the web, how it has been funded, and the backstory on the early browser wars and emerging monetization models. We also talked about why big problems are hard to solve for the Internet and the tradeoffs between centralization and distribution.
Brendan Eich: The story of my life. I was a Unix kernel hacker at Silicon Graphics before I ended up at Netscape, and I always worked on platform code… I think you see - it’s pretty explicit now - open fintech through the Symphony Foundation and other things… You see a lot of companies realize that open source is better for quality assurance, recruiting, lots of things that traditionally they would have to pay for themselves, so they can share the cost of platform code, or what Georgios Kontaxis calls evolutionary kernel code. This is the sort of stable code that’s conserved like the best DNA in a population. It’s like the TCP/IP or JavaScript - once you stabilize it, everybody can build huge systems above, and sometimes even below it. You can have multiple link layers and go from Ethernet being 10 Mbps on copper, all the way up to fiber (metropolitan Ethernet or whatever ATM cells) and still have this TCP/IP in the middle, and sure, IPv6, but it’s not really taking over, and it’s all evolutionary. JavaScript ES6, here we go again!
The platform code, the evolutionary kernel code that’s sort of “the commons” in the best sense of the word, is a cost center. When I was at Silicon Graphics, as I developed hot, killer graphics, workstations and then high-end multi-processors and low-end desktop graphics workstation machines, eventually to be killed by the PC and the GPU in the ’90s, the kernel group that I worked in and the network software group got kicked around. It was a cost center, it was an albatross, or else it was a source of talent for building out something important for the multiprocessor business. So they got kicked from the “hot product” group to the “not hot product” group and back. I think it even got divisionalized a little bit, not fully forked. HP did the same thing.
I see a pattern here, where open source is serving the commons, it’s not serving the differentiated, risky or for-profit innovation, that for better or worse some of that stuff stays proprietary. But anything that starts to become a platform, starts to become a cost center and needs to have its costs shared if it’s of interest to many other players. And how do you fund that? I wouldn’t say it’s exactly like publishers, because publishers often are for-profit. But not always - Dow Jones was a long-time family-owned and subsidized… In some ways we need Carlos Slim and Jeff Bezos to prop up the nation’s number one and two papers of record, right?
[01:00:22.27] Newspapers have been in a decades-long decline, and they always relied on advertising and subscriptions, and subscriptions never paid for the whole thing; they were always a minority of the revenue needed to run a newspaper business, even back in the heyday, the golden age of newspapers. Because people would subscribe, and there was some revenue you made there, but advertising paid the bulk of it, and that’s still true.
The way I look at this is not to say “We must have advertising. Advertising is always good.” There was a TV executive I heard about in the ‘50s who said, “It’s inconceivable that television will ever be other than free and advertising-supported”, and of course we have Netflix now, so never say never. Maybe the Brave donation model, in some future frictionless micro-donation, micro-payment, micro-royalty world will suffice. We still have free television with ads for sure, even with Netflix. But if you look at how costs are covered, you have to look at what’s happening today. If 70 billion is spent on ads in the U.S. (I think this year, or maybe it was last year), and Facebook and Google are taking a lot of it (they’re taking 80%) and the increment in spending from last year - maybe it went from 60 to 70 - of that 10 billion increment they’re 90%, that’s not leaving a lot for the publishers. And if you look at how the publishers do their ad businesses, they have to pay if they sell direct ad space. If they do indirect, they’re at the mercy of malware, like I said, but they’re also getting far less, because there’s so many people in the middle, cutting out from the pie; by the time the pie gets from the marketing side to the publisher, there’s very little left - 35-40% or less.
Still, that’s a lot of money. That’s billions of dollars a year, and these companies need to get it, so how would you go about replacing that? Assume for a moment things need to be replaced as is, that we won’t get a better model, we won’t find fusion energy, like Sam Altman thinks would make electricity free - I kind of doubt that - but ceteris paribus (all else equal), how would you replace that 70 billion? I think about that a lot. First of all, I think a lot of it is wasted on ads that never are viewed. This is the big scandal that’s been breaking for the last year or so, thanks to my friends at White Ops Security; there was another group whose acronym I’m forgetting - ANA I think, that did a study that showed there was a lot of fraud and kickback nonsense going on…
[01:02:56.04] A lot of ads aren’t being viewed. Facebook recently announced that its video ad metrics were off, way high from what they actually were. And they were charging accordingly, so people are kind of mad about this. But we have computers, we have smartphones; we could theoretically do a very private platform that measures what you’re interested in without giving away your data profile or your privacy, and matches valuable opportunities to you and give you a cut. That makes me think there’s a way to fund the web even if it’s not a commons. But certainly, for things like a publisher site that is more of a commons - obviously, Wikipedia is an example, but there are others - or all the open source software that everybody wants to share the cost of, because it is a cost centre, it is even an evolutionary kernel in some sense, and it has to be sustained by everybody who’s chipping in. I think there are ways to fund it, it’s just we haven’t found the ways to do it. That’s why Brave’s doing Bitcoin under the hood. It’s not because we love Bitcoin; we don’t want everyone to learn about Bitcoin. We do not intend people to have to become Bitcoin gurus. We haven’t announced yet, we’re doing a deal where you can easily just trust us with your credit card to do a recurring small charge to get Bitcoins; you don’t have to think about it at all. Currently, the way you fund your Brave wallet while we’re doing this Brave payments, beta is with Coinbase (we’ve partnered with Coinbase), but you still have to think a little bit about Bitcoin. And the publisher side, they’re getting Bitcoin out; we’re gonna make that easy to get fiat [currency] out.
We’d like to use something like Bitcoin though because we think there’s a future where you have a frictionless system - no interchange charge, none of the hidden charges that are associated with the credit cards where fraud sticks the merchant with the overhead or the cost of having funds clawed back to the bank. The interchange charge is like 2,15% or something (it varies), but the hidden cost of fraud is high, and a lot of merchants have to eat it. It’s not a good deal for them, especially the small businesses.
[01:04:57.10] So I think there’s something coming to the web in terms of frictionless payments, whether it’s Bitcoin, or Ethereum classic, or son of daughter of redhead’s stepchild of both… There’s something coming there, and the important properties are the permissionless property, no intermediary, frictionless property… Ideally, it would be anonymous and capable of doing micro transactions with Bitcoin as not currently. But that’s why Brave has this Brave payment solution - we solve that ahead of some next-generation solution that is coming to Bitcoin. And we want to, again, make it just work with your native fiat currency. If that happens, then I think it will be easier to micro-tip, micro-donate, have micro royalties.
Think about the Ted Nelson’s project Xanadu vision, and now think about VR if it ever takes off, or AR, because it really should be in our sunglasses. In ten years it probably will be, then all the great stuff creative people build for the augmented or virtual world - you can’t really DRM it. It’s a shared world, there’s too many eyeballs to ray trace and path trace to. You can’t say, “These are encrypted pixels and you cannot touch them, or we’ll put you in jail under the DMCA.”
All your models and your texture art - they’re gonna be out there, just like they were in Second Life. How do you protect that stuff? Well, you can watermark it; that’s a traditional method, it goes back to real-world paintings and documents. That is more of an identification system for prosecuting gross copyright violations after the fact. What if you could just have automatic micro royalties, like
Ted Nelson envisioned? People are looking at or using, or borrowing, or creative-commons-ing, meshing up some bit of art - there’s a micro royalty associated to the artist. That can be automated too, and that’s another thing that I think you can do with cryptocurrencies if you do them right. That should be part of the web standard, future AR web. I’ll pause there because I’ve said a lot, but you can see that there’s a big vision here, and I hope it’s exciting to everybody because it goes way beyond just browsers.