Chris and Daniel talk with Greg Allen, Chief of Strategy and Communications at the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) Joint Artificial Intelligence Center (JAIC). The mission of the JAIC is āto seize upon the transformative potential of artificial intelligence technology for the benefit of Americaās national security⦠The JAIC is the official focal point of the DoD AI Strategy.ā So if you want to understand how the U.S. military thinks about artificial intelligence, then this is the episode for you!
Greg Allen: Sure. I would start by saying that two countries are specifically named by the National Defense Strategy, which came out in 2018. Two countries are specifically named as strategic competitors. And that is Russia and China. These are countries who have interests that are identified as being contrary and in contradiction to (in many cases) the interests of the United States, and also who have oriented their national security establishments in competition with the United States. And thatās not a very surprising statement, I would say, to most.
When the National Defense Strategy came out, it was sort of putting on paper the sorts of things that a lot of United States leaders had been saying, and frankly that a lot of leaders in the two countries I just mentioned were also saying. So thatās sort of the basic backdrop of strategic competition.
Into artificial intelligence - of course, this is the national security world weāre talking about, and the military weāre talking about, so we remain quite interested in what is going on around the world, and we would be silly not to be paying attention to that.
I think, speaking about China and Russia each in turn - Chinaās AI strategy, which came out in 2017, specifically identifies that they see AI as a transformative technology in many different areas, including in national security. It also identifies AI as a leapfrog technology. The term leapfrog is interesting in this use case, because it is describe elsewhere by Chinese military thinkers and strategists as really sort of describing their belief about what AI technology will enable their military, compared to the United Statesā military.
If you can think about the example of cellular telecommunications infrastructure in developing countries, notably many developing countries in Africa - this is the canonical example of a leapfrog technology. There were many developing countries in Africa who did not have well built out landline telephone infrastructure, and yet this was no disadvantage whatsoever in adopting cellular telephone infrastructure. They just skipped the development step of landline telephones and went straight to cell phones. That skipping is referred to as leapfrogging.
In our competition with China in military technology, there are many things that we are quite good at, that they have a very hard time with in the technological sense; things like jet engines, things like aircraft carriers - these are really tough, really complicated technologies, that we as a country tend to be quite good at, and that China as a country has historically had a lot of difficulty with.
So when they write about AI technology, theyāre saying āWell, if we could really develop an interesting advantage in AI, perhaps we could leapfrog the United Statesā, which is to say āPerhaps we would not have to catch up to them in aircraft carriers, or catch up to them in jet engines, because we will shift the basis of competition.ā And Chinese military thinkers often write quite optimistically about Chinaās opportunity to compete with the United States technologically in these terms. So we would be remiss if we were not paying attention to that.
[23:52] The second thing Iāll say is that, as pointed out by the Secretary of Defense at the National Security Commission on AI, in his speech at that commission - there are many Chinese weapons manufacturers who are currently selling on international markets weapons systems advertised as being autonomous, meaning they can make their own decisions and act independently, and also having that full combat autonomy, meaning they can actually be responsible for the use of lethal force.
So thatās what China is sort of up to today, at least in terms of what theyāre advertising on the international market.
Russia is similarly very interested in AI technology. One quote that everybody really paid attention to was in September of 2017 when Vladimir Putin said that whoever leads in AI technology will be the ruler of the world. And I think Russia does not have a very clear path to leading in AI technology, whereas the United States and China regularly top the lists of who is publishing the most AI research papers annually, and who is publishing the best AI research papers annually, and similarly lead in measurements about who is attracting the most venture capital for AI companies.
Russia is pretty low on all of the rankings that I just mentioned, so I donāt think that Russia has a clear path to leading in AI technology. Unfortunately, they do have a reasonably clear path to leading in the weaponization of AI technology. I think this is a pretty similar story to the internet. Russia was not a leader in any of the foundational technologies for computer networking or the internet, and yet nevertheless Russia developed a very advanced and broad and deep military cyber capability. So similarly, I think Russia is looking to be a leader in the weaponization of AI, just as they were a leader in the weaponization of the internet.
In terms of what theyāre doing, itās a lot of what you would expect. The social media disinformation campaigns, and influence operations that Russia has been in the news a lot for lately - they are also interested in bringing in more advanced machine learning and AI capabilities to these operations.
And then secondarily, combat robotics is an area that Russia has devoted a lot of investment, and has shown a lot interest, and theyāre experimenting with a lot of their military robotic systems operationally, literally using some of these systems in Syria. So both Russia and China are moving out aggressively to incorporate AI capabilities into their military.
I would say in terms of the United Statesā response, our intent is to lead the world in the military use of AI for the benefit of United Statesā national security. I donāt think weāre so much obsessing over each individual capability that comes out of China or Russia, so much as we are looking at the broader landscape. I think AI is a general-purpose technology, the way electricity is a general-purpose technology. Itās useful for things like radio, but itās also useful for light bulbs. Similarly, computers are useful for just about everything, and we similarly think that AI ultimately has a lot of application-specific opportunities for us. So weāre interested in leading in AI, in the broad sense.