Bus factors & conspiracy theories
Adam & Jerod discuss the news! Our Merch sale, useful built-in macOS CLI utilities, the slow death of the hyperlink, systematically estimating a projectās bus factor, The Browser Company abandoning Arc, the Dead Internet theory & more!
Matched from the episode's transcript š
Jerod Santo: Hereās a story. In 2015 or so Sheaās employer had layoffs. One of them was the only contributor to part of the codebase that made money for the company. He remembered reading about truck number - which is the same thing; itās just trucks instead of buses - and thought itād be fun to write a GitHub enterprise plugin that calculates who you canāt afford to fire. Shea found a research paper called the Truck Factor Research Paper, which actually went through this in a somewhat vigorous way.
āI started writing the plugin and talked five minutes on it at our Thursday afternoon lightning talks.ā His co-workers said it would immediately hit Goodhartās Law - once a metric becomes a measure, it no longer is a good metric - and they say they saw it as a way for management to easily calculate who you can fire. So all good tools can be used for good AND evil.
But long story short, I went out, I used this Truck Factor paper, which actually describes a way you can go about calculating this, at least fuzzily, to find out the key contributors to projects⦠And ran it against the Linux Foundaā no, the Linux Kernel. Donāt run it against the foundation, run it against the Linux kernel. Found a way using the Linguist plugin to filter out documentation and third party libraries just to make sure itās actually the people who are like working on the Linux Kernel, and found that not only is it small, even on something as large as Linux kernel, itās going down.
Currently, Shea found a Truck Factor of 12. 12 people on the Linux kernel, down from in the 40s when it was run originally. So from 2015 till now, from the 40s down to 12. And his collaborator, M. Clare, who did some visualizations and stuff, also installed the plugin on her system. She got a factor of 8.
Iām not sure why thereās a discrepancy between the two. This is a developerās blog post that Iām mining for this information. But yeah, so we have now this tool. I assume you can go take it and run it against other repositories. I would think, depending on the repository, it may or may not be accurate. Because if you have ā probably the smaller the project, the harder it is to know that number for sure. But maybe you can know that number just by looking at the list of contributors in that case. But for large projects with thousands of contributors, you can actually understand how many of these are key in order to keep that sucker running. And it turns out, over time, it appears the Linux Kernel in particular has been going down, down, down. What are your thoughts on this, Adam?